today we saw the draws for this years world snooker championship take place, and this blogpost should be a little candidate check. remember: the action starts at 21st april - 4 days away from the moment i am writing this.
first of all i should mention, that its much harder to predict the winner of the world championship nowadays, than it was until 2000, when Reardon (70s), Davis (80s) and Hendry (90s) dominated their decades. Since Hendry, noone was able to defend his title, so now we have a handful of players, that would be no surprise, if they'd win the title this year.
1 JOHN HIGGINS
He is the most successful player of the recent years, winning four titles, the last two in 2009 and 2011, but I give him little chances this year. Through the season his game wasnt at its best, and it seems to me, that there are "more hungry" players out there. Still he is a hard to beat and very experienced of course.
prediction: quarterfinals
2 MARK SELBY
He is the current World No. 1 in the rankings, but he never has been the type of player, that wins lots of tournaments, and to be honest I still wonder why. Without doubt he is one of the most gifted players of our days (I saw him playing live at the German Masters 2011), but when its about winning a tournament, he seems to struggle under pressure; you may even call him underachiever with just two ranking titles yet. In my prediction I see him progressing to the final, but there he will lose against... oh well you can read that somewhere below. ;)
prediction: runner up
3 MARK WILLIAMS
The Welsh Potting Machine is a two time world champion already (2000 and 2003) but he had'nt had his best season so far, just like Higgins. I'll give him a win over Liu Chuang and the winner of Ebdon/O'Sullivan, but in the quarters I predict a loss.
prediction: quarterfinals
4 JUDD TRUMP
The youngster had his breakthrough a year ago with the China Open trophy and the 2nd place at the crucible. This season his story of success went on, he won the UK Championship and made good progress in a couple of other tournaments. He is a great player, and he will be a world champion probably, but not in 2012 I'd say. Why? because it's boring to bet on the favorite (thats what he is, you according to most betting sites)
prediction: quarterfinals
5 SHAUN MURPHY
Shaun played a Mark-Selby-resque season so far, with lots of semifinals and quartersfinals, but without a title (just one first round defeat too though). I give him a win over Jones, but in the clash of the giants against Stephen Lee, I see him lose. Sure he is not a player you want to play against, because, as almost all high seeded players, his game is pretty complete, but his recent games didnt convinced me, that he can repeat his 2005 title.
prediction: 2nd round
6 NEIL ROBERTSON
Robbo is one of my favorite players out of the current snooker elite and so maybe I am not that neutral, but I give him a semifinal spot. His season was decent, besides the Masters title, but he is a player that shows no nerves under pressure. Although he lost his first ranking final recently (PTC Grand Finals) he is a monster in finals too.
prediction: halffinals
7 DING JUNHUI
I hate to predict him. If he is in the mood, he is unstopable, if not, then he is not. Just a bit like Ronnie, you never know what you can expect. This season he had lots of negative first round defeats, but also won Welsh Open and Championship League. I see him out in round 2 (against Allen), but it wouldnt be a huge surprise if he wins the tournament as well.
prediction: 2nd round
8 STEPHEN MAGUIRE
Ladies and gentlemen: my winner. He may not be the big favorite, but Maguire's game looked very solid this season, and he wasnt rewarded with a tournament victory yet (two ranking finals though), so that I choose him. Moreover he avoids very strong opponents in the first two rounds (well everyone is strong etc. pp., but Brecel and then Dott/Perry seems doable)
prediction: winner
9 GRAEME DOTT
No offense, but somehow I dont like Dott. I dont know him as a person, he may be a nice guy, but as a television viewer I cant really enjoy his games. I know he reached the final of the WC three times, and I'm not saying he is no good player, but somehow I cant give him more than a first round win over Perry before he will be knocked out by Maguire.
prediction: 2nd round
10 MARK ALLEN
The most diplomatic player on the tour, always humble and friendly. Well not really, but with the win at the city of dead cats, he became on of the extended favorites. In my draw he collides with Selby in the quarters, and thats a game that is hard to predict. I could easily imagine Allen winning, I just see it 51:49 in favour of Selby and someone has to lose.
prediction: quarterfinals
11 MARTIN GOULD
Gould is new in the Top16 and the highest ranked player I wouldnt give a true chance to win the title. Sure his game improved and he played a great season, but I'm not convinced that this will be his breakthrough tournament. Its up to him to prove me wrong now.
prediction: 2nd round
12 STEPHEN LEE
Lee played an extraordiary season. According to interviews, he really benefited by the enlarged number of tournaments and won his first major title since 2006. In my draw he knocks out Trump, but loses against Maguire in the semifinals.
prediction: halffinals
13 ALLISTER CARTER
I am not sure about the status of his injuries, but his season wasnt good and he'll fall out of the Top16 after the season, if he cant start a very good run. Moreover he will meet Mark Davis, one of the hardest qualifiers to beat in the first round. I see him losing this, although I really like to see him playing. Hard to believe he can repeat his performance of 2008, when he went to the final, only losing to a brilliant Ronnie O'Sullivan back then.
prediction: 1st round
14 RONNIE O'SULLIVAN
Dark Horse. You never know what you get. His starting game against Ebdon will be a clash of playing styles. In my draw I gave him a win against Ebdon (65:35 I'd say), but against his very close friend (attention: sarcasm) Mark Williams he will suffer a narrow lose.
prediction: 2nd round
15 MATTHEW STEVENS
Havent watched him play enough to really judge. Fu seems beatable, but further progress would be a surprise to me.
prediction: 2nd round
16 STUART BINGHAM
The veteran, who won the Australian Masters recently, got one of the hardest qualifiers. Stephen Hendry. Feels kind of odd to wrote that. Bingham is a solid player, but not solid enough to come to the second round.
prediction: 1st round
Agree? Disagree? I dont care? tmv has no idea about whatsoever?
Let me know what you think.
And/or prove it at http://event-prediction.com you find me as
"a. stoffers" (country: Germany) there!